Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Tunisia
  • Djibouti
  • Egypt
  • Equatorial Guinea
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Cote d'Ivoire
  • Senegal
  • Burkina Faso
  • Sierra Leone

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $710,515$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{678,827.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 124.6)}}\) (asimptote \(678,827.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,843$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,232.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 125.2)}}\) (asimptote \(18,232.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49,112$ on 2020-10-22

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,122$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,563.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 196.5)}}\) (asimptote \(12,563.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $91$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{216.7}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 232.9)}}\) (asimptote \(216.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,091$ on 2020-10-22

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $52,620$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,116.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 184.6)}}\) (asimptote \(68,116.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $768$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,001.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 178.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,001.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,795$ on 2020-10-22

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $186,731$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{420,834.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 228.3)}}\) (asimptote \(420,834.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,132$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,881.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 210.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,881.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,118$ on 2020-10-22

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,892$ on 2020-10-22

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $740$ on 2020-10-22

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,120$ on 2020-10-22

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,522$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,346.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,346.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 58.8)}}\) (asimptote \(59.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $72$ on 2020-10-22

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,060$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,132.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.6)}}\) (asimptote \(102,132.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,166$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,917.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,917.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,270$ on 2020-10-22

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,074$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,238.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 108.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,238.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.6)}}\) (asimptote \(85.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30$ on 2020-10-22

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Cote d'Ivoire recovered 97%
Senegal recovered 74%
Burkina Faso recovered 32%
Sierra Leone recovered 4%

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,390$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,730.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 101.3)}}\) (asimptote \(19,730.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 82.1)}}\) (asimptote \(123.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $181$ on 2020-10-22

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,508$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,017.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,017.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $321$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.7)}}\) (asimptote \(323.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,161$ on 2020-10-22

Burkina Faso⮸

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,414$ on 2020-10-22

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 23.2)}}\) (asimptote \(55.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $480$ on 2020-10-22

Sierra Leone⮸

Population $7,976,983$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,340$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,181.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 66.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,181.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $73$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{70.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(70.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $490$ on 2020-10-22